فیلترها/جستجو در نتایج    

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متن کامل


اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    79-101
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    312
  • دانلود: 

    23
چکیده: 

Purpose: The present research aimed at finding an answer to The question of The process of influence of Cyberspace on Iranian Poetry in The Future, and The influence of Cyberspace on various aspects of poetry such as content, its audience, The poet, The media that published The poem, The process of composing The poem, The rights of The author, and Globalization of The Iranian poetry. Method: The Delphi technique was used to carry out this research. A group of experts comprising professors in The fields of Communication and Literature was selected. The expert’s opinions were collected and analyzed through an in-depth interview, a questionnaire based on The Likert scale, and by The execution of three stages of Delphi rounds. Findings: Accordingly, considering The content, The experts predicted that due to The impact of Cyberspace, The quality of The poetry will be reduced and consequently, The language of poetry will become simpler and close to prose and it will only reflect The daily events of life. Regarding The audience, They concluded that The audience’s selection power will be increased, however, we can differentiate between The public and professional audience. With respect to The sender, There will be no phenomenon of multi authors, and regarding The channel, The experts agreed upon Media Convergence besides, The poets’ agency in publishing Their own poems will be increased. Conclusion: Experts believe that The spread of communication technologies will make censorship ineffective. This is The only case in which The group believes in The impact of technology on The Future of poetry. The group of experts did not reach a consensus regarding The impact of technology on The phenomena such as publication of author’s poems as one’s original work and The Globalization of Iranian poetry, thus, analyzed These items in The framework of The human agency.

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بازدید 312

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    235-252
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    144
  • دانلود: 

    24
چکیده: 

Purpose: Something that happens in The Future of a scientific field depends on today's view of young people about The Future. The perception of young people from The Future and Their conception of The Future is very important. The purpose of this study was to imaging The Future of sports science from The perspective of educated youth. Method: The method of The present research is qualitative and exploratory research and in terms of purpose is applied research. The statistical population of The study included educated youth who are familiar with sports science and The snowball sampling method was used for interviews and Theoretical saturation were obtained with 23 interviews. To analyze The data, The content analysis method has been used to obtain The information of this research. Findings: The results show The Future of sports science among educated youth consists of seven main concepts that include: hope for a green education system, excessive interest in working in The sports industry, basic reengineering, relative disappointment from The ability of authorities, social position through academic education, desire for empowerment and lack of skills, injustice, and utilitarianism. Conclusion: Finally, by observing The mental images of The youth, it can be stated that sports science will move towards The dystopia if The current situation continues, and it can move towards The utopia with fundamental changes. In this direction, The stakeholders of sports sciences need to be togeTher and disagreements need to be managed as well as arbitrariness of sports science professionals should be reduced.

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بازدید 144

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    181-202
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    198
  • دانلود: 

    24
چکیده: 

Purpose: The Future of The construction industry is increasingly influenced by new technologies. In order to adopt appropriate strategies in facing new technologies, it is necessary to know The possible Futures of The construction industry. This research was done with The aim of explaining The technological uncertainties and compiling The Future scenarios of The construction industry.  Method: The research method is applied and was carried out with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, The library study was used to determine The technological drivers, Then The Structural Analysis was used to explain The technological uncertainties, and finally, The Schwartz method was used to compile The scenarios. The statistical population is experts of construction industry. Findings: Nine technological uncertainties affecting The Future of The construction industry have been identified and for each of Them, three states of decline, stagnation and progress have been considered. Data analysis by Scenario Wizard shows eight probable scenarios. The portfolio of scenarios including four groups of progress scenarios, towards progress, towards stagnation, and towards wane has been compiled. Conclusion: In The progress scenario, The 89% of uncertainties have developed. In  towards progress, 56% of The factors are in The development status, which indicates The development of The technological factor application. In The stagnation scenario, no progress has been made in The application of uncertainties and They are in a static state. In towards wane, uncertainties have been placed in a situation of reduced use.

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بازدید 198

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مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    103-132
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    1
  • بازدید: 

    153
  • دانلود: 

    24
چکیده: 

Purpose: Managers are one of The important elements of an organization, for this reason, in order to draw The Future of The organization, it is necessary for The planners to specify The conditions of Their selection and appointment. Therefore, The current research has been done with The aim of identifying and analyzing The components of selecting Future principals.Method: In this research, comparative and benchmarking method is used as a prospective approach. This approach is based on The belief that today's advanced organizations/countries can be considered as a model for The Future of anoTher organization/countries in Their respective subjects. For this, first, The fields of comparison and benchmarking were determined using Brody's four-step comparison method; Then The countries of Canada, Finland, Australia, South Africa, and Japan were selected according to The qualitative balance value in The international advanced TEAMS test, human development index, life quality index(health, instruction, and welfare), education quality index, and oTher scientific-scholarly indexes; finally, by extracting The criteria for The selection and appointment of principals through content analysis and comparison with Iran, The proposed framework for Iran has been presented.Findings: A total of 61 components for The selection of secondary school principals were identified from among The studies conducted in The selected countries in this article. By extracting The commonalities and differences of each of The components among The countries, it was found that The highest index of manager selection and appointment belongs to Japan and The lowest one is related to Finland.Conclusion: There are similarities between The components of selection of principals of secondary schools in Iran and selected countries. In Iran, special attention should be paid to important components such as adherence to religious principles, appropriate personality traits, creativity and innovation, motivation to develop capabilities, professional growth, power of supervision and accountability, social image, leader skills, and purposefulness and foresight.

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بازدید 153

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    133-154
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    186
  • دانلود: 

    23
چکیده: 

Purpose: Due to The great damage that Corona has inflicted on The tourism industry, neglecting The Future of tourism marketing can pose a serious challenge to this industry and economy and have irreparable consequences. The purpose of this study is to identify key factors, drivers and Future scenarios of The tourism marketing.Method: The present study is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature and mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of methodology. The method of this research is scenario writing using MicMac software to identify key drivers and scenarios with Wizard scenario software.Findings: First, The Future trends and meta-trends of post-corona tourism marketing were identified, of which 41 key trends and 8 meta-trends were identified. According to experts, 19 key factors in The Future of tourism marketing in post- corona were identified using The cross-impact analysis and questionnaire completion. Then, using The cross-impact analysis questionnaire and with The help of The Wizard scenario software, two groups of favorable and unfavorable scenarios were identified.Conclusion: Based on The research results, There are two favorable scenarios and two unfavorable scenarios that can help marketing and tourism policy-makers and decision-makers to take into account The effective factors and scenarios proposed for proper planning of industry in The post-Corona era.

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    203-234
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    175
  • دانلود: 

    27
چکیده: 

Objective: In many countries, The advancements in information technologies and The decentralized computing method has inspired hope to take advantage of modern information technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in order to overcome The unique challenges in global health including The coronavirus crisis. The following study tries to examine The possible Future scenarios in The industry, with The aim of discovering new opportunities to increase health and quality of life.Findings: Considering The research literature, seventeen drivers, which had affected The research in three dimensions, were identified and The Delphi method was used for The accuracy of confirmation, Their rankings and for The calculation of Their certainty. The relationships between The drivers and The identified dimensions were measured and confirmed in The form of hypoTheses and model presentations by structural equation methods. Using The cross-matrix method, five drivers were identified as risk and goal. Finally, through The identification of uncertainty and risk and goal drivers, four scenarios were developed.Conclusion: Conclusion: The treatment structure and medical equipment influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions and due to The growth rate, optimal and intelligent application of modern digital technologies creates a wide-ranging evolution in this field and illustrates The possibility of achieving a desired Future by taking advantage of The scenario of The formation of an interconnected global society and The realization of global health in The interaction of artificial intelligence drivers, novel production demands, sanctions, internet of things (IoT) and blockchain.

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مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources
نویسندگان: 

Noroozi Mojtaba | Gharayi Zeinab

اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    55-78
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    156
  • دانلود: 

    19
چکیده: 

Purpose: The science of interpretation, as The most important science responsible for understanding The Qur'an, needs to be methodized and updated so that The teachings of The Qur'an can be used easily for all classes of people. In The present study, The meaning of "Future research in interpretation" is The ability to create desirable models for more efficient interpretation in The Future, by using scientific tools, creativity and relying on The foundations and rules of interpretation and compensating The damages of interpretation in The past.Method: This research, with descriptive analytical method, answers The question, what are The fields and requirements of Future research in interpretation? Findings: The results of The current research are based on The fact that special attention to The Qur'an, as The most important source of interpretation, rationality and methodical consideration in interpretation, attention to The prerequisites of interpretation, interpretation based on The requirements of The time, The need to pay attention to Thematic interpretation, studying on The history of interpretation and observing The manners and conditions of interpretation are one of The most important requirements of interpretation in The Future. Results: Considering The developments that will take place in The field of knowledge, methods and expectations from science in The Future, The interpretation will also change. For this reason, in order not to cause various damages to The interpretation of The Qur'an, it is necessary to pay attention to The various contexts, principles and requirements of The interpretation of The Qur'anic commentators and scholars.

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1401
  • دوره: 

    7
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    1-22
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    164
  • دانلود: 

    15
چکیده: 

Purpose: Clustering and co-word analysis is a method to reveal relationships and links and illustrate The intellectual structure of a scientific field. This research tries to study The intellectual structure of articles in The field of Futures studies in Iran by using The technique of co-word analysis. Method: The current research is a descriptive-analytical development with a scientometric approach. The statistical population is 921 articles retrieved records in The field of Futures studies. Findings: The findings showed that articles in The field of Futures studies in Iran are often associated with positive growth, and in terms of frequency, The keywords scenario, Islamic Republic, and foresight are The most frequent in Futures studies. The findings related to The hierarchical clustering led to The formation of 8 clusters in this field, namely "ICT visions", "geographers who love The Future", "knowledge development", " Futuristic higher education", "Future of Religion", "Regional Relations", "Strategic Foresight" and "Heavy Weight of Method". Conclusion: According to The findings of The current research and The high frequency of The keyword scenario, as well as The density and relationships of this keyword with oTher keywords, it can be concluded that The scenario is The dominant approach in Futures studies. Also, according to The resulting clusters, it was observed that These researches have a high variety, but addressing The Future in many areas is still neglected.

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نشریه: 

راهبرد

اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1399
  • دوره: 

    29
  • شماره: 

    94
  • صفحات: 

    97-129
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    266
  • دانلود: 

    97
چکیده: 

سئوال اصلی و هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر، شناسایی فراروندهای موثر بر آینده دیپلماسی عمومی است. بنابراین پس از انجام مطالعات کتابخانه ای و بررسی اسناد و منابع معتبر، فهرستی از فراروندها و روندهای کلیدی فضای سایبر موثر بر آینده دیپلماسی عمومی شناسایی شد، سپس با بهره گیری از روش های آینده نگاری، روش تحلیل ساختاری/ تاثیرات متقابل، ماتریس تاثیر متقابل طراحی گردید و با اخذ نظر 12نفر از خبرگان و اجماع نظرات آنان درباره تاثیرگذاری عوامل بر یکدیگر وارد ماتریس شد. با تحلیل داده های به دست آمده از ماتریس با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک، میزان تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری هرکدام از عوامل و پراکنش عوامل از جمله پایدار و ناپایدار، مشخص و ارزیابی شده است و تمامی روندها در قالب متغیرهای استراتژیک و تعیین کننده یا متغیرهای تأثیرگذار، متغیرهای دو وجهی، متغیرهای تأثیرپذیر یا وابسته، متغیرهای مستقل و متغیرهای تنظیمی دسته بندی گردیدند و نهایتا براساس تحلیل های نرم افزاری صورت گرفته روندهای راهبردی موثر شناخته و مشخص شدند که عبارتنداز: ترویج هوش مصنوعی، افزایش اتصالات، ظهور مدل های نوین در کسب وکار، تهدیدات خارجی، جهانی شدن، حمایت از سرمایه فکری، تجارت جهانی، ثبات سیاسی، تغییرات گفتمانی، موزانه قوا، ارتباطات استراتژیک، افزایش رسانه های شبکه های مجازی، ارتباطات اقتصادی و ارتباطات فرهنگی و اجتماعی؛ این متغیرها به عنوان بازیگران اصلی در آینده دیپلماسی عمومی محسوب می شوند.

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اطلاعات دوره: 
  • سال: 

    1402
  • دوره: 

    11
  • شماره: 

    2
  • صفحات: 

    175-193
تعامل: 
  • استنادات: 

    0
  • بازدید: 

    169
  • دانلود: 

    23
چکیده: 

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to compile effective scenarios for improving The resilience of new Habitations in Isfahan. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method; it is a combination of documentary and survey methods and Future research. Investigations have shown that based on possible situations, 10,040 scenarios have been identified to study The resilience of new Habitations in The Metropolitan Isfahan Isfahan against The risk of earthquakes. Of These scenarios, 9999 weak scenarios, 36 high compatibility or believable scenarios and 5 strong scenarios have been identified. Thirty-six scenarios with high compatibility can be divided into four groups according to Their proximity, and each group includes several scenarios with almost common characteristics despite The small difference in one or more situations among The 15 key factors. These four groups represent The general framework of The situations governing The Future resilience of The studied habitations. According to The results of The examination of different groups of scenarios in this research, scenario number 1 in The first group of scenarios has been introduced as a favorable scenario due to having favorable and complete conditions. Also, among The key factors studied, The collective justice factor, with an average of -4 and a total score of -144, is The most critical key factor in The studied scenarios   Extended Abstract Introduction The inability to accurately predict The Future, as well as The complexities of increasing change, has led researchers to take advantage of The emerging knowledge of Future studies and bring The issue of foresight into The heart of planning activities and to predict scientific and technological developments.The appropriate effectiveness of today's decision-making is related to recognizing The Future situation and how planners deal with it. Accurate knowledge of The Future also depends on a suitable method for discovering The Future. Today, with traditional planning methods, including outsourcing in The past, it is unlikely to generate reliable foresight in The medium and long term. Futuristic science approaches in planning to find The key factors and drivers of development in The planning space emphasize that in this way, The planner with The lever of control and management of The Future to plan optimally for The Future. In The urban area of Isfahan, The evolution of industry has played an important role in changing The economic structure and The emergence of a new hierarchy of residential areas and population concentration, especially in Isfahan. In order to overcome The problems caused by urban development, especially to reduce The housing problem and prevent population explosion, reduce The destruction of agricultural land, preserve The cultural texture and control construction, new habitations in Isfahan Metropolitan have been thought and built. Existence of numerous problems and issues, such as active faults with The ability to cause extensive human and financial losses, construction of high-level units outside The rules, weakness of infrastructure services such as medical centers, transportation, etc., extensive migration from inside and outside The province to These habitations, The establishment of heavy industries around These habitations, regardless of The characteristics of The structure, The high age of The building in some of The studied habitations, etc., has increased attention to The issue of resilience in These habitations. Given The importance of futurism has a significant impact on reducing The human and financial losses of human habitations, The question has been raised: What is The most desirable scenario to improve The resilience of new urban habitations in The Isfahan Metropolitan?   Methodology The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on The new method of futurology, analytical-structural. Interaction / structural analysis is a method for analyzing The possible occurrence of an issue in a predicted set. Judgments about The potential for interaction between The predicted topics can adjust The probabilities of this. In this study, using 87 variables in The form of 6 dimensions, The interaction of The studied variables has been analyzed, and finally, using The identified key factors, scenarios affecting The resilience of new urban habitations in Isfahan urban area have been developed.   Results and discussion In this research, 54 possible situations have been proposed for 15 key factors. The number of states of selected key factors is between 3-4 possible states for each factor. From a total of 540 possible situations in The table of scenarios with high compatibility in this research, 99 favorable situations (18.33 percent), 69 static situations (12.78 percent), 124 situations on The verge of crisis (22.96 percent), and 248 crises (93.45 percent). The results of The application of Scenario Wizard software in this research have shown that There are 10040 scenarios for studying The resilience of new habitations in Isfahan urban area against The risk of earthquakes, and it is possible to use this number of extracted scenarios to forecast The resilience of The studied habitations. It is not acceptable, and They can only be used statistically. The extracted scenarios can be categorized into three general sections as scenarios with strong compatibility, weak scenarios, and incompatible scenarios. Out of The 10040 scenarios obtained in this research, 9999 weak scenarios, 36 incompatible scenarios and 5 strong scenarios have been identified. In order to determine The optimal scenario among The strong scenarios, an action has been taken. According to The conditions governing The 3 mentioned scenarios, scenario number 1 can be introduced as The optimal scenario in this research because it has 100% suitable conditions.   Conclusion According to The grouping of compatible scenarios, selecting The best scenario from 3 scenarios should be done. As mentioned in The previous topics, The scenarios of The second and third groups cannot be considered and cited due to having many problems; Therefore, They should be removed from The review cycle at this stage. The only remaining group of scenarios is The first group, or The group of golden scenarios, which is in The best condition in terms of desirability. Since There is only one scenario in The golden scenario group, scenario number 1 of this research can be introduced as a favorable scenario for The resilience foresight of new urban habitations in The Isfahan Metropolitan. By examining The situation of scenario number 1 in The table of compatible scenarios, this result has been obtained that out of 15 situations, The development of geographical perspectives, increasing The level of awareness about The seismicity of The place of residence, identifying and dealing with dangerous factors, population density of 0-70 people, improving The level of social participation of citizens, increasing The level of social justice among citizens, The dynamism and development of economic and social activities, The development of intellectual and financial support for economic activities, The development of social capital, The improvement of The level of compensation capacities, The greater role of people compared to centers government during an earthquake, reducing damage caused by an earthquake, improving The level of performance of city managers during an earthquake, having a strong urban information bank and a large urban distribution have 100% favorability.   Funding There is no funding support.   Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to The conceptualization and writing of The article. All of The authors approved Thecontent of The manuscript and agreed on all aspects of The work declaration of competing interest none.   Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest.   Acknowledgments  We are grateful to all The scientific consultants of this paper.

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